Time for another #NZPol poll
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@jeremy_pm Are you making my point for me? You've seen how useless they've been, but to be fair so are their experienced one other than nose in troughing
@jeremy_pm and yes it happens but better for it to not happen and have lots of mentors
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BTW, without wanting to influence your choice, should Greens and Te Pāti Māori make up over 50% of the next coalition NZ govt then the most likely next NZ Prime Minister would be Chlöe Swarbrick.
@jeremy_pm Ooohhh ... I'll vote twice!
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@jeremy_pm and yes it happens but better for it to not happen and have lots of mentors
@ArrestJK @jeremy_pm If there are enough first-time MPs maybe they also won't be pinned down by the poor norms of parliamentary culture, and could break away from some of the stupidity long perpetuated by elders and betters.
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@jeremy_pm and yes it happens but better for it to not happen and have lots of mentors
I was neither agreeing or disagreeing with you simply pointing out that new and inexperienced MPs is and always has been a part of the parliamentary cycle.
The reality is, unless you're an inexperienced politician and former deodorant salesman who has been selected to unashamedly serve the interests of the 10% then you're never going to be put in a position beyond the back bench unless of course you bring a specific set of skills that are useful such as New Zealand Council of Trade Unions economist and NZ Labour candidate Craig Renney.
On a personal level I would love to have the power to influence outcomes but it's always good to get people to think of possibilities and consider potential outcomes.
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@ArrestJK @jeremy_pm If there are enough first-time MPs maybe they also won't be pinned down by the poor norms of parliamentary culture, and could break away from some of the stupidity long perpetuated by elders and betters.
@libroraptor @jeremy_pm Trust me though the culture needs to change too many new MPs will be a mess and ultimately backfire on Greens this election lets get more MPs next election be a MAIN party
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@libroraptor @jeremy_pm Trust me though the culture needs to change too many new MPs will be a mess and ultimately backfire on Greens this election lets get more MPs next election be a MAIN party
Without wanting to disagree as I understand the point you're making, the outcome will be what it will be and on a personal level I believe the best Greens & TPM can hope for is about a 40% representation in the next govt but you only need to look at the fear of the Greens coming from National, Actlas and US First to understand how desperately Aotearoa NZ needs strong Greens representation in the next govt.
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Without wanting to disagree as I understand the point you're making, the outcome will be what it will be and on a personal level I believe the best Greens & TPM can hope for is about a 40% representation in the next govt but you only need to look at the fear of the Greens coming from National, Actlas and US First to understand how desperately Aotearoa NZ needs strong Greens representation in the next govt.
@jeremy_pm @libroraptor Yep the outcome does not care what we'd like
and reality says 40% is upper limit, that said politics changes quickly and I won't be upset if Greens are the main party in the next Govt -
@libroraptor @jeremy_pm Trust me though the culture needs to change too many new MPs will be a mess and ultimately backfire on Greens this election lets get more MPs next election be a MAIN party
@ArrestJK @jeremy_pm Yes, I would like there to be five or six main parties so that every government is a coalition. Not just a business compromise, but an actual coalition.
Or no main parties, for another perspective. We've had MMP only nominally for far too long now. Current government is like New World+Four Square+Nosh and the other side is like Woolworths+Fresh Choice.
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@ArrestJK @jeremy_pm Yes, I would like there to be five or six main parties so that every government is a coalition. Not just a business compromise, but an actual coalition.
Or no main parties, for another perspective. We've had MMP only nominally for far too long now. Current government is like New World+Four Square+Nosh and the other side is like Woolworths+Fresh Choice.
@libroraptor @jeremy_pm Well seeing as we're talking about what we want
I'd like a Govt where parties represented different interests and would negotiate outcomes that worked for most if not all...like MMP is designed to work.
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@ArrestJK @jeremy_pm Yes, I would like there to be five or six main parties so that every government is a coalition. Not just a business compromise, but an actual coalition.
Or no main parties, for another perspective. We've had MMP only nominally for far too long now. Current government is like New World+Four Square+Nosh and the other side is like Woolworths+Fresh Choice.
Curiously, recent polling shows a notable loss of support for the 2 main parties and that support shifting across the spectrum to the minor parties.
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Curiously, recent polling shows a notable loss of support for the 2 main parties and that support shifting across the spectrum to the minor parties.
@jeremy_pm @libroraptor Yes people don't like National, and don't trust Labour to not sell us all out AGAIN
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@jeremy_pm @libroraptor Yes people don't like National, and don't trust Labour to not sell us all out AGAIN
@ArrestJK @jeremy_pm Labour's brand right now seems to be snotty Hipkins trying really hard to dig at National to cover up not having anything to offer. He doesn't even do insults well so all we're left with is a niggler in the corner.
I was especially disappointed when he said in a recent interview that it's really just a personality competition and he's going to eat fewer sausage rolls. What a dipshit. All about politics, nothing about government.
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@libroraptor @jeremy_pm Well seeing as we're talking about what we want
I'd like a Govt where parties represented different interests and would negotiate outcomes that worked for most if not all...like MMP is designed to work.
I enjoyed listening to Marama Davidson's kōrero in the #NZPol debate on the Prime Minister's statement in the House yesterday.
She spoke of the parliamentary system being built on a system of conflict and competition rather than cooperation. It's really worth listening to.
Marama Davidson begins at 1:59:35
https://www.youtube.com/live/EGJSeuFbxVQ?si=q9kObCXnh8KnP6qY&t=7175
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I enjoyed listening to Marama Davidson's kōrero in the #NZPol debate on the Prime Minister's statement in the House yesterday.
She spoke of the parliamentary system being built on a system of conflict and competition rather than cooperation. It's really worth listening to.
Marama Davidson begins at 1:59:35
https://www.youtube.com/live/EGJSeuFbxVQ?si=q9kObCXnh8KnP6qY&t=7175
@jeremy_pm @libroraptor Westminster system is, MMP isn't. We've carried the old into the new slowly changing
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@jeremy_pm @libroraptor Westminster system is, MMP isn't. We've carried the old into the new slowly changing
@ArrestJK @jeremy_pm I agree – asinine combat is not essential to MMP, but a carryover of poor culture by people who refuse to learn or otherwise improve. When the Greens first started getting seats their rationality was furlongs ahead of the National–Labour blabber. But they never had the capital to resist being held down by the two behemoths. Now, at last, we see the behemoths cutting themselves down. Might be an opportunity for Parliament to move beyond its school bully mentality.
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Time for another #NZPol poll
If a 2026 Labour coalition government is elected later this year what proportion of that coalition would you like to be represented by Greens and Te Pāti Māori?
Based on current average polling and assuming they would need a collective minimum of 50.5% to form a government the Greens and TPM would make up around 15% of that vote meaning they would represent approximately 30% in a Labour led coalition govt.
@jeremy_pm I’ve chosen “below 30%”, but with some specific reasoning.
The baseline should be that the total number of ministerial roles is proportional to the number of seats the parties bring to the coalition. However… for smaller parties the raw numbers aren’t enough: it's important that they remain visible in the media and can demonstrate that their most important policies are taken seriously. The coalition will fail if smaller parties disappear from view, so they shouldn't accept just a bunch of associate roles: they need a disproportionate number of senior Cabinet posts.
At the same time, Cabinet isn't huge. So if the trade-off is that a prominent Cabinet post comes at the expense of a less-than-proportional total number of ministerial roles, so be it.
This means that ambitious people in the larger party need to recognise that they're not guaranteed Cabinet posts. Which I feel is good, because it means they have to understand that a coalition isn't just on paper.
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@jeremy_pm I’ve chosen “below 30%”, but with some specific reasoning.
The baseline should be that the total number of ministerial roles is proportional to the number of seats the parties bring to the coalition. However… for smaller parties the raw numbers aren’t enough: it's important that they remain visible in the media and can demonstrate that their most important policies are taken seriously. The coalition will fail if smaller parties disappear from view, so they shouldn't accept just a bunch of associate roles: they need a disproportionate number of senior Cabinet posts.
At the same time, Cabinet isn't huge. So if the trade-off is that a prominent Cabinet post comes at the expense of a less-than-proportional total number of ministerial roles, so be it.
This means that ambitious people in the larger party need to recognise that they're not guaranteed Cabinet posts. Which I feel is good, because it means they have to understand that a coalition isn't just on paper.
I am not sure I follow your logic. Surely the higher the number of minor party members in a coalition government the more influence and control they have over government decisions.
I appreciate that this could lead to a more fractious coalition but as we’ve seen with the other lot, the main party has two choices either risk losing control by refusing to accommodate coalition partners or cooperating with them to create at times compromised outcomes that work for all.
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I am not sure I follow your logic. Surely the higher the number of minor party members in a coalition government the more influence and control they have over government decisions.
I appreciate that this could lead to a more fractious coalition but as we’ve seen with the other lot, the main party has two choices either risk losing control by refusing to accommodate coalition partners or cooperating with them to create at times compromised outcomes that work for all.
@jeremy_pm It's not just about the numbers, because ministerial roles have different degrees of influence. A finance minister has effective veto power over all government decisions. A Deputy Prime Minister gets constant media attention. A minister inside cabinet gets to participate in all collective decisions. A full minister outside Cabinet can only has influence over their particular portfolio, to the extent Cabinet allows. An associate minister outside Cabinet… is ignored until there's a scandal they can be blamed for.
So if Greens and TPM are 30% of MPs and have 40% of roles, but all the roles are outside Cabinet and mostly associates, I'd consider that a bad deal. I'd rather have 20%, but in Cabinet with significant influence over collective decisions, not just isolated portfolios.
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@jeremy_pm It's not just about the numbers, because ministerial roles have different degrees of influence. A finance minister has effective veto power over all government decisions. A Deputy Prime Minister gets constant media attention. A minister inside cabinet gets to participate in all collective decisions. A full minister outside Cabinet can only has influence over their particular portfolio, to the extent Cabinet allows. An associate minister outside Cabinet… is ignored until there's a scandal they can be blamed for.
So if Greens and TPM are 30% of MPs and have 40% of roles, but all the roles are outside Cabinet and mostly associates, I'd consider that a bad deal. I'd rather have 20%, but in Cabinet with significant influence over collective decisions, not just isolated portfolios.
I still don't understand your argument. If Greens have a larger proportionality in govt than 30% then they have more of a mandate to demand ministerial roles etc.
The New Zealand Green Party has never been in government as a coalition partner only under a confidence and supply agreement with the Labour-led government in 2017.
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@jeremy_pm It's not just about the numbers, because ministerial roles have different degrees of influence. A finance minister has effective veto power over all government decisions. A Deputy Prime Minister gets constant media attention. A minister inside cabinet gets to participate in all collective decisions. A full minister outside Cabinet can only has influence over their particular portfolio, to the extent Cabinet allows. An associate minister outside Cabinet… is ignored until there's a scandal they can be blamed for.
So if Greens and TPM are 30% of MPs and have 40% of roles, but all the roles are outside Cabinet and mostly associates, I'd consider that a bad deal. I'd rather have 20%, but in Cabinet with significant influence over collective decisions, not just isolated portfolios.
@jeremy_pm So far, Labour has only ever shared Cabinet with New Zealand First. They've never had a coalition with Greens in Cabinet, and they've treated the achievements of Green ministers outside Cabinet as things to rip up at the first opportunity in order to court National voters.
I don't think Labour is prepared for a full coalition with Green ministers inside Cabinet. While some Labour people may have absorbed that it would be different, I expect there to be mid-ranked Labour MPs who resent Greens getting posts that they feel entitled to based on their positions within the Labour Party. I'd like to see more evidence of a cultural shift in Labour to be ready for this situation.
