The most interesting thing about the by-election result is, to me, where the swing came from:
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The most interesting thing about the by-election result is, to me, where the swing came from:
A couple of days ago, the Greens were polling at 32%, Labour at 29%. In the final result, the Greens got 41%, Labour 26%.
That’s not a load of Labour voters voting tactically. That’s a load of undecided voters deciding to vote for a candidate, rather than feeling disenfranchised.
This is what I have been saying for almost 30 years is the outcome of major parties believing Duverger's law is a real thing. And, yes, I am still bitter that I got a poor mark for my Politics A-Level essay that predicted exactly this phenomenon (which isn’t hard because it had happened multiple times before in the 20th century, yet the curriculum still teaches Duverger's law as if it isn’t a pile of nonsense).
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The most interesting thing about the by-election result is, to me, where the swing came from:
A couple of days ago, the Greens were polling at 32%, Labour at 29%. In the final result, the Greens got 41%, Labour 26%.
That’s not a load of Labour voters voting tactically. That’s a load of undecided voters deciding to vote for a candidate, rather than feeling disenfranchised.
This is what I have been saying for almost 30 years is the outcome of major parties believing Duverger's law is a real thing. And, yes, I am still bitter that I got a poor mark for my Politics A-Level essay that predicted exactly this phenomenon (which isn’t hard because it had happened multiple times before in the 20th century, yet the curriculum still teaches Duverger's law as if it isn’t a pile of nonsense).
Inspiring that this by-election result is echoing through other countries as proof that there are other ways to defeat the far right than adopting its policies to "retain voters".
An example from Catalonia:
https://mastodont.cat/@JoanBuades/116141421116698130 -
The most interesting thing about the by-election result is, to me, where the swing came from:
A couple of days ago, the Greens were polling at 32%, Labour at 29%. In the final result, the Greens got 41%, Labour 26%.
That’s not a load of Labour voters voting tactically. That’s a load of undecided voters deciding to vote for a candidate, rather than feeling disenfranchised.
This is what I have been saying for almost 30 years is the outcome of major parties believing Duverger's law is a real thing. And, yes, I am still bitter that I got a poor mark for my Politics A-Level essay that predicted exactly this phenomenon (which isn’t hard because it had happened multiple times before in the 20th century, yet the curriculum still teaches Duverger's law as if it isn’t a pile of nonsense).
@david_chisnall i'm trying to work out where the refuck vote actually came from. there weren't enough tories in 2024? either a lot of 2024 labour flipped, or more likely imo, they took a lot of Galloway's Tankie Party votes
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The most interesting thing about the by-election result is, to me, where the swing came from:
A couple of days ago, the Greens were polling at 32%, Labour at 29%. In the final result, the Greens got 41%, Labour 26%.
That’s not a load of Labour voters voting tactically. That’s a load of undecided voters deciding to vote for a candidate, rather than feeling disenfranchised.
This is what I have been saying for almost 30 years is the outcome of major parties believing Duverger's law is a real thing. And, yes, I am still bitter that I got a poor mark for my Politics A-Level essay that predicted exactly this phenomenon (which isn’t hard because it had happened multiple times before in the 20th century, yet the curriculum still teaches Duverger's law as if it isn’t a pile of nonsense).
@david_chisnall I'm Australian so it still annoys me that countries ignore an alternative voting system that largely avoids the issue of "splitting the vote". Although you still tend to have major parties dominating without proportional representation.
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@david_chisnall I'm Australian so it still annoys me that countries ignore an alternative voting system that largely avoids the issue of "splitting the vote". Although you still tend to have major parties dominating without proportional representation.
@Halaana @david_chisnall Yes, but once two parties become entrenched, why would either willingly do something which would reduce their power to benefit anybody but them?
Working for the people? Pfft. What do you think this is, a representative democracy?
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