In an era of tech companies & influencers pushing hard on #AI, I'm sitting here refreshing my knowledge on PHP programming.
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In an era of tech companies & influencers pushing hard on #AI, I'm sitting here refreshing my knowledge on PHP programming.
Know the fundamentals and:
- enjoy your craft
- spend less money
- don't fear about when the AI providers alter their dealsYou'd think that countries already grappling with the terrible impact of having outsourced their manufacturing - and how that is crippling their economy and national security now - might recognise a new outsourcing of fundamental capability. But no.
I'll re-iterate what I said yesterday:
- Once you outsource your manufacturing to other countries, you no longer retain the skills and workforce to spin it back up.
- Once you're reliant on outsourced work, the people you outsourced to have the power and get to dictate terms.AI is *exactly* the same thing.
Once it's been relied on long enough that there are not enough juniors with the fundamental knowledge, few to no seniors left... that's the end of your ability to not rely on AI providers.
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I'll re-iterate what I said yesterday:
- Once you outsource your manufacturing to other countries, you no longer retain the skills and workforce to spin it back up.
- Once you're reliant on outsourced work, the people you outsourced to have the power and get to dictate terms.AI is *exactly* the same thing.
Once it's been relied on long enough that there are not enough juniors with the fundamental knowledge, few to no seniors left... that's the end of your ability to not rely on AI providers.
Which in-and-of-itself isn't "bad" if you're the company or country that owns the AI providers.
That'll change. And then you're fucked.
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Which in-and-of-itself isn't "bad" if you're the company or country that owns the AI providers.
That'll change. And then you're fucked.
@mattwilcox this may be playing out at a smaller scale, firms that had sacked copywriters or programmers (or other jobs considered easy AI tasks) are apparently starting to hire these people back.
The jobs will be less fun; they'll involve fixing the mess that happened in the interim.
I hope the turn happens at a smaller scale before whole nations get caught up in this mess!
There may be a skills shortage because people fell into the vibe-coding pit in recent years. Good for the rest of us!
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@mattwilcox this may be playing out at a smaller scale, firms that had sacked copywriters or programmers (or other jobs considered easy AI tasks) are apparently starting to hire these people back.
The jobs will be less fun; they'll involve fixing the mess that happened in the interim.
I hope the turn happens at a smaller scale before whole nations get caught up in this mess!
There may be a skills shortage because people fell into the vibe-coding pit in recent years. Good for the rest of us!
@sarajw 100% agree on all points.
I'm not sure whether people just don't recognise patterns re-playing, or whether that doesn't matter because social and economic systems chug along in their normal flow anyway and are pretty much impossible to actually control, because they're mostly emergent rather than directed.
Like no bird being in charge of the flock - you can see how it works but have no real control. Human systems feel more and more like that.
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R relay@relay.mycrowd.ca shared this topic
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Which in-and-of-itself isn't "bad" if you're the company or country that owns the AI providers.
That'll change. And then you're fucked.
@mattwilcox It’s also not bad if you’re one of the dinosaurs that does have senior skills. Man, we’re going to be in such demand to clean up the mess that AI will make.
Another consequence: once the junior->senior pipeline has dried up and the seniors have withdrawn, there will be no innovation for AI to leech off of. Innovation will stall and we’ll end up with a blotchy remixed goop of everything that has gone before. Blandness rule! Regression to the mean for all!
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I'll re-iterate what I said yesterday:
- Once you outsource your manufacturing to other countries, you no longer retain the skills and workforce to spin it back up.
- Once you're reliant on outsourced work, the people you outsourced to have the power and get to dictate terms.AI is *exactly* the same thing.
Once it's been relied on long enough that there are not enough juniors with the fundamental knowledge, few to no seniors left... that's the end of your ability to not rely on AI providers.
@mattwilcox someone also needs to tell trump that just because he says manufacturers they should move production "back" to the US doesn't magically create the factories, the infrastructure, the supply chains, or the skilled, trained workers you need. Or the economic sense it all needs to make.
Nobody will buy a $3000 iPhone just because it's made in Alabama.
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R relay@relay.infosec.exchange shared this topic
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I'll re-iterate what I said yesterday:
- Once you outsource your manufacturing to other countries, you no longer retain the skills and workforce to spin it back up.
- Once you're reliant on outsourced work, the people you outsourced to have the power and get to dictate terms.AI is *exactly* the same thing.
Once it's been relied on long enough that there are not enough juniors with the fundamental knowledge, few to no seniors left... that's the end of your ability to not rely on AI providers.
@mattwilcox
It seems we lost when we gave up on skills. And yes, AI dehumanizes us by giving up the skill needed to even learn.
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@mattwilcox It’s also not bad if you’re one of the dinosaurs that does have senior skills. Man, we’re going to be in such demand to clean up the mess that AI will make.
Another consequence: once the junior->senior pipeline has dried up and the seniors have withdrawn, there will be no innovation for AI to leech off of. Innovation will stall and we’ll end up with a blotchy remixed goop of everything that has gone before. Blandness rule! Regression to the mean for all!
@ArtHarg @mattwilcox this open opportunities for societies that either don’t have the means to hire all the platforms needed to implement the AI stack, access to the currency, or the models don’t produce good results in their language.
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I'll re-iterate what I said yesterday:
- Once you outsource your manufacturing to other countries, you no longer retain the skills and workforce to spin it back up.
- Once you're reliant on outsourced work, the people you outsourced to have the power and get to dictate terms.AI is *exactly* the same thing.
Once it's been relied on long enough that there are not enough juniors with the fundamental knowledge, few to no seniors left... that's the end of your ability to not rely on AI providers.
@mattwilcox the same is true of cloud providers. Email and security are outsourced today from companies and guess what happens ...
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Which in-and-of-itself isn't "bad" if you're the company or country that owns the AI providers.
That'll change. And then you're fucked.
@mattwilcox what could possibly go wrong with making your provider chain completely reliant on companies that embody the absolute worst of Silicon Valley culture and have yet to show how they’re going to make a profit? (/s)
But seriously, I cannot _wait_ for all this to go Total Inability To Support Usual Performance and for everyone to suddenly exclaim that it was impossible to see this coming.
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I'll re-iterate what I said yesterday:
- Once you outsource your manufacturing to other countries, you no longer retain the skills and workforce to spin it back up.
- Once you're reliant on outsourced work, the people you outsourced to have the power and get to dictate terms.AI is *exactly* the same thing.
Once it's been relied on long enough that there are not enough juniors with the fundamental knowledge, few to no seniors left... that's the end of your ability to not rely on AI providers.
@mattwilcox i agree, and i also remind myself that we have lower ability for calligraphy because people write with keyboards, and we don't have to memorize all roads because we have maps. Some reliance on technology isn't that bad. So, I wonder how we can make the AI transformation healthy.
PS: I also continue working on my coding abilities, because it's a great skill to have and a nice hobby, even when AI does most of the production work.
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@mattwilcox i agree, and i also remind myself that we have lower ability for calligraphy because people write with keyboards, and we don't have to memorize all roads because we have maps. Some reliance on technology isn't that bad. So, I wonder how we can make the AI transformation healthy.
PS: I also continue working on my coding abilities, because it's a great skill to have and a nice hobby, even when AI does most of the production work.
@fallbackerik 100%
It’s not that AI isn’t useful. It certainly is. But it is also very over-sold and irresponsibly used atm, has a ton of issues on multiple levels, and given the current trajectory in software development in particular - is likely to become an existential nation-scale problem just like outsourcing manufacturing became.
AI is a tool. Tools are just things. But how we use them? That’s the rub. “Efficiency” is short term. If it puts limits on your control of production? Danger.
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I'll re-iterate what I said yesterday:
- Once you outsource your manufacturing to other countries, you no longer retain the skills and workforce to spin it back up.
- Once you're reliant on outsourced work, the people you outsourced to have the power and get to dictate terms.AI is *exactly* the same thing.
Once it's been relied on long enough that there are not enough juniors with the fundamental knowledge, few to no seniors left... that's the end of your ability to not rely on AI providers.
@mattwilcox ... But for some tasks people are handing to AI, AI can't actually do the task. This is already showing up in (for example) serious defects in Microsoft monthly updates. They are applying bandaids now, but they are likely to experience "can't be fixed" before they hit "can't go back". Some companies investing heavily might go under, but many will survive
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@ArtHarg @mattwilcox this open opportunities for societies that either don’t have the means to hire all the platforms needed to implement the AI stack, access to the currency, or the models don’t produce good results in their language.
oh please let the small very non anglophone countries be all in on efficient reliable coding. individual universities. a group of friends. _translatio studii_, to be fancy.
as I understand it this has happened before in various disciplines - Lviv and topology? somewhere I forget and STP chemistry?
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oh please let the small very non anglophone countries be all in on efficient reliable coding. individual universities. a group of friends. _translatio studii_, to be fancy.
as I understand it this has happened before in various disciplines - Lviv and topology? somewhere I forget and STP chemistry?
@clew @ArtHarg @mattwilcox I’m writing about other aspects of LLM as well, not only coding.
For instance, in my field of UX it is difficult to believe that the same personas and behaviors from the US population applies to Latinamerica or even Europe.
This happen in many other fields too.
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I'll re-iterate what I said yesterday:
- Once you outsource your manufacturing to other countries, you no longer retain the skills and workforce to spin it back up.
- Once you're reliant on outsourced work, the people you outsourced to have the power and get to dictate terms.AI is *exactly* the same thing.
Once it's been relied on long enough that there are not enough juniors with the fundamental knowledge, few to no seniors left... that's the end of your ability to not rely on AI providers.
@mattwilcox this has already happened time and again when outsourcing key positions to contractors and then realising the error and having to hire back people at a much more expensive rate.
And many people don’t come back and with them companies lose vital historical knowledge.
Fuck them and their boards.
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I'll re-iterate what I said yesterday:
- Once you outsource your manufacturing to other countries, you no longer retain the skills and workforce to spin it back up.
- Once you're reliant on outsourced work, the people you outsourced to have the power and get to dictate terms.AI is *exactly* the same thing.
Once it's been relied on long enough that there are not enough juniors with the fundamental knowledge, few to no seniors left... that's the end of your ability to not rely on AI providers.
@mattwilcox ...and then they crank the price up.
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D drajt@fosstodon.org shared this topic
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@mattwilcox ...and then they crank the price up.
@recantha 100%
