bad news "AI bubble doomers".
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bad news "AI bubble doomers". I've found the LLMs to be incredibly useful and reduce the workload (and/or make people much, MUCH more effective at their jobs with the "centaur" model).
Is it overhyped? FUCK Yes. Salespeople Gotta Always Be Closing. But this is NOTHING like the moronic Segway (I am still bitter about that crap), Cryptocurrency, which is all grifters and gamblers and criminals end-to-end, and the first dot-com bubble where not NEARLY enough people had broadband or even internet access, plus the logistics systems to support shipping products was nowhere REMOTELY where it is today.
If you are expecting this "AI bubble" to pop anytime soon, uh.. you might be waiting a bit longer than you think? Overhyped, yes, overbuilding, sure, but not remotely a true bubble any any of the same senses of the three examples I listed above
. There's something very real, very practical, very useful here, and it is getting better every day.If you find this uncomfortable, I'm sorry, but I know what I know, and I can cite several dozen very specific examples in the last 2-3 weeks where it saved me, or my team, quite a bit of time.
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bad news "AI bubble doomers". I've found the LLMs to be incredibly useful and reduce the workload (and/or make people much, MUCH more effective at their jobs with the "centaur" model).
Is it overhyped? FUCK Yes. Salespeople Gotta Always Be Closing. But this is NOTHING like the moronic Segway (I am still bitter about that crap), Cryptocurrency, which is all grifters and gamblers and criminals end-to-end, and the first dot-com bubble where not NEARLY enough people had broadband or even internet access, plus the logistics systems to support shipping products was nowhere REMOTELY where it is today.
If you are expecting this "AI bubble" to pop anytime soon, uh.. you might be waiting a bit longer than you think? Overhyped, yes, overbuilding, sure, but not remotely a true bubble any any of the same senses of the three examples I listed above
. There's something very real, very practical, very useful here, and it is getting better every day.If you find this uncomfortable, I'm sorry, but I know what I know, and I can cite several dozen very specific examples in the last 2-3 weeks where it saved me, or my team, quite a bit of time.
@codinghorror “I can cite several dozen very specific examples in the last 2-3 weeks where it saved me, or my team, quite a bit of time.”
Please do, if you can. Because most time I’ve tried to use LLMs for work the error rate ends up costing me MORE time than I would have spent without, and most AI boosters are short on specifics. We just had a presentation at my job on how we all need to be using AI with no case studies of how it’s actually been useful so far.
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@codinghorror “I can cite several dozen very specific examples in the last 2-3 weeks where it saved me, or my team, quite a bit of time.”
Please do, if you can. Because most time I’ve tried to use LLMs for work the error rate ends up costing me MORE time than I would have spent without, and most AI boosters are short on specifics. We just had a presentation at my job on how we all need to be using AI with no case studies of how it’s actually been useful so far.
@sethrichards here's one: a friend confided he is unhoused, and it is difficult for him. I asked ChatGPT to summarize local resources to deal with this (how do you get ANY id without a valid address, etc, chicken/egg problem) and it did an outstanding, amazing job. I printed it out, marked it up, and gave it to him.
Here's two: GiveDirectly did two GMI studies, Chicago and Cook County and we were very unclear what the relationship was, or why they did it that way. ChatGPT also knocked this out park and saved Tia a lot of time finding that information out, so she was freed up to focus on other work.
I could go on and on and on. Email me if you want ~12 more specific examples. With citations.
But also realize this: I am elite at asking very good, well specified, very clear, well researched questions, because we built Stack Overflow.
You want to get good at LLMS? learn how to ask better questions of evil genies. I was raised on that. 🧞
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@sethrichards here's one: a friend confided he is unhoused, and it is difficult for him. I asked ChatGPT to summarize local resources to deal with this (how do you get ANY id without a valid address, etc, chicken/egg problem) and it did an outstanding, amazing job. I printed it out, marked it up, and gave it to him.
Here's two: GiveDirectly did two GMI studies, Chicago and Cook County and we were very unclear what the relationship was, or why they did it that way. ChatGPT also knocked this out park and saved Tia a lot of time finding that information out, so she was freed up to focus on other work.
I could go on and on and on. Email me if you want ~12 more specific examples. With citations.
But also realize this: I am elite at asking very good, well specified, very clear, well researched questions, because we built Stack Overflow.
You want to get good at LLMS? learn how to ask better questions of evil genies. I was raised on that. 🧞
@codinghorror The problem is not "LLMs are useless and when the bubble bursts they go away," they aren't going away any more than websites went away when the .com bubble burst.
The problems are
1. They are a 6/10 tool being advertised as an 11/10 tool with the folks selling this stuff consistently overstating what they're capable of doing.
2. The few hundred billion spent building them needs the 11/10 promises to come true in order to be justified.
3. They're really good at making up answers that appear *plausible* but are also completely wrong, and verifying the answers is becoming increasingly difficult as the top search results are increasingly flooded with output from the same LLMs.
4. 'AI' is being used to try to sell a bunch of completely unrelated stuff like 'copilot+ pcs' even though everything meaningful in the LLM space only runs in datacenters due to GPU memory limitations. -
@codinghorror The problem is not "LLMs are useless and when the bubble bursts they go away," they aren't going away any more than websites went away when the .com bubble burst.
The problems are
1. They are a 6/10 tool being advertised as an 11/10 tool with the folks selling this stuff consistently overstating what they're capable of doing.
2. The few hundred billion spent building them needs the 11/10 promises to come true in order to be justified.
3. They're really good at making up answers that appear *plausible* but are also completely wrong, and verifying the answers is becoming increasingly difficult as the top search results are increasingly flooded with output from the same LLMs.
4. 'AI' is being used to try to sell a bunch of completely unrelated stuff like 'copilot+ pcs' even though everything meaningful in the LLM space only runs in datacenters due to GPU memory limitations.The thing that makes it the most incredible hype bubble in living memory though is not that they're selling it as more capable than it is in reality — that happens with basically every product these days. It's that so many people are eager and willing to completely lose their minds and fervently devote themselves and other people's money to the sci-fi fantasy magic they believe is there for the taking if you only believe hard enough.
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The thing that makes it the most incredible hype bubble in living memory though is not that they're selling it as more capable than it is in reality — that happens with basically every product these days. It's that so many people are eager and willing to completely lose their minds and fervently devote themselves and other people's money to the sci-fi fantasy magic they believe is there for the taking if you only believe hard enough.
@kbal I think the difference between the sale and the actual product is much much much greater than for typical products.
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