<![CDATA[Exclusive: Oil-price bets ahead of #IranWar news totalled $7B, reporting shows]]>Exclusive: Oil-price bets ahead of news totalled $7B, reporting shows

A series of “well-timed” bets on falling prices totalling as much as $7 billion during March & April spread across multiple exchanges & types of & derivatives just before major Iranian policy announcements by , acc/to traders, market experts & Reuters analysis of data.


https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/boards-policy-regulation/oil-price-bets-ahead-iran-war-news-totalled-7-billion-reporting-shows-2026-05-07/?utm_source=braze&utm_medium=notifications&utm_campaign=2025_engagement

]]>https://board.circlewithadot.net/topic/44526f16-ac79-4825-b959-325166f97b16/exclusive-oil-price-bets-ahead-of-iranwar-news-totalled-7b-reporting-showsRSS for NodeFri, 15 May 2026 04:26:25 GMTFri, 08 May 2026 06:17:49 GMT60<![CDATA[Reply to Exclusive: Oil-price bets ahead of #IranWar news totalled $7B, reporting shows on Fri, 08 May 2026 07:22:30 GMT]]>@Darkphoenix @Nonilex
Miller would be the odds-on favorite MX Phoenix, in my opinion. But I don't think even he could have coordinated this.
Call me paranoid, but I suspect Putin's agents have a hand in this.

]]>https://board.circlewithadot.net/post/https://beige.party/users/Guillotine_Jones/statuses/116537750326635120https://board.circlewithadot.net/post/https://beige.party/users/Guillotine_Jones/statuses/116537750326635120Fri, 08 May 2026 07:22:30 GMT<![CDATA[Reply to Exclusive: Oil-price bets ahead of #IranWar news totalled $7B, reporting shows on Fri, 08 May 2026 07:03:17 GMT]]>@Nonilex
Evidence is certainly mounting about instances of market manipulation made possible by Trump's erratic handling of his ill-advised misadventure in Iran.
The regime is as rotten as Trump's hands.
Two thoughts occurred to me this evening:
1) Trump is certainly not smart enough to have come up with the current GOP gerrymandering epidemic.
Who put him up to it and has the ability to orchestrate it?
2) Lately Trump has telephone conversations with journalists yet his physical health and cognitive ability are deteriorating steadily.
How would we know if the phone calls are Ai-generated -- which by asking the question, I suggest they could be?

]]>https://board.circlewithadot.net/post/https://beige.party/users/Guillotine_Jones/statuses/116537674814371452https://board.circlewithadot.net/post/https://beige.party/users/Guillotine_Jones/statuses/116537674814371452Fri, 08 May 2026 07:03:17 GMT<![CDATA[Reply to Exclusive: Oil-price bets ahead of #IranWar news totalled $7B, reporting shows on Fri, 08 May 2026 06:56:45 GMT]]>@Nonilex I ask myself how long will investors go on losing money and being scammed?
Maybe they justify their losses by "it's a time of crisis", but these crisis are almost artificial, built by people those investors support, people that study the timing of each crisis and use them to collect money of the fools

]]>https://board.circlewithadot.net/post/https://sociale.network/users/filobus/statuses/116537649092598828https://board.circlewithadot.net/post/https://sociale.network/users/filobus/statuses/116537649092598828Fri, 08 May 2026 06:56:45 GMT<![CDATA[Reply to Exclusive: Oil-price bets ahead of #IranWar news totalled $7B, reporting shows on Fri, 08 May 2026 06:53:56 GMT]]>On April 17, nearly $2 billion in Brent, WTI, gasoil & were sold at 1224-1225 GMT, MINUTES before Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said would reopen, followed by multiple social media posts by & officials. On April 21, some $830 ​million worth of Brent & WTI contracts were sold just 15 minutes before Trump extended the ceasefire.

]]>https://board.circlewithadot.net/post/https://masto.ai/users/Nonilex/statuses/116537638013954262https://board.circlewithadot.net/post/https://masto.ai/users/Nonilex/statuses/116537638013954262Fri, 08 May 2026 06:53:56 GMT<![CDATA[Reply to Exclusive: Oil-price bets ahead of #IranWar news totalled $7B, reporting shows on Fri, 08 May 2026 06:51:53 GMT]]>Trump's March 23 ceasefire announcement triggered a decline in crude futures of as much as 15%, one of the largest intraday drops on record. The announcement also sent & gasoil down around 12%.

On April 7, sell ⁠orders on & ​gasoline prices worth $2.12 billion took place between 1944 & 1945 GMT, well after the market settled, a time when volumes are usually thin. ​MINUTES later, announced a 2-week ceasefire with .

]]>https://board.circlewithadot.net/post/https://masto.ai/users/Nonilex/statuses/116537629961895507https://board.circlewithadot.net/post/https://masto.ai/users/Nonilex/statuses/116537629961895507Fri, 08 May 2026 06:51:53 GMT<![CDATA[Reply to Exclusive: Oil-price bets ahead of #IranWar news totalled $7B, reporting shows on Fri, 08 May 2026 06:49:03 GMT]]>The selling was spread across the first, second & third month ​contracts, worth some $1.35 billion, plus an ⁠additional $122 million in ICE gasoil - diesel - futures, & $81 million in US gasoline futures, all worth a total $2.2 billion.

"Those quantities are not going to escape scrutiny," said Robert Frenchman, a lawyer at Dynamis LLP in NY, who has previously worked on white-collar & cases.

]]>https://board.circlewithadot.net/post/https://masto.ai/users/Nonilex/statuses/116537618804356271https://board.circlewithadot.net/post/https://masto.ai/users/Nonilex/statuses/116537618804356271Fri, 08 May 2026 06:49:03 GMT<![CDATA[Reply to Exclusive: Oil-price bets ahead of #IranWar news totalled $7B, reporting shows on Fri, 08 May 2026 06:46:32 GMT]]>"Let's stay with the facts. The volumes were highly unusual. They were concentrated. They were ahead of ​key announcements," said Jorge Montepeque from Onyx Capital Group, who ​helped design the system of setting prices ⁠at Platts in the 1990s.

…On March 23, announced a delay to threatened attacks on Iranian power infrastructure at 1105 GMT. LSEG data shows that between ​1049 & 1050 GMT that day, traders placed bets on 20k lots of Brent & WTI futures.

]]>https://board.circlewithadot.net/post/https://masto.ai/users/Nonilex/statuses/116537608932595899https://board.circlewithadot.net/post/https://masto.ai/users/Nonilex/statuses/116537608932595899Fri, 08 May 2026 06:46:32 GMT<![CDATA[Reply to Exclusive: Oil-price bets ahead of #IranWar news totalled $7B, reporting shows on Fri, 08 May 2026 06:41:15 GMT]]>The trades look "well informed" as they preceded major announcements, said Adi Imsirovic, from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (), & a veteran trader. authorities, such as the , can access data to trace who placed the trades & investigate if it decides to, he added.
The CFTC’s enforcement director said in March the agency was aware of speculation regarding in CFTC-regulated & was “watching”.

]]>https://board.circlewithadot.net/post/https://masto.ai/users/Nonilex/statuses/116537588133056113https://board.circlewithadot.net/post/https://masto.ai/users/Nonilex/statuses/116537588133056113Fri, 08 May 2026 06:41:15 GMT<![CDATA[Reply to Exclusive: Oil-price bets ahead of #IranWar news totalled $7B, reporting shows on Fri, 08 May 2026 06:37:48 GMT]]>A sell bet - or - means the person executing the borrows the derivative from a counterparty, sells it & later buys it ​back more cheaply when the price falls, keeping the remaining cash as profit.

On March 23 & on April 7, 17 & 21, prices plunged by over 10%. Reuters calculations show that a short seller with $7 billion could have made hundreds of millions ‌of dollars in ⁠profits, depending on the timing of the bets.

]]>https://board.circlewithadot.net/post/https://masto.ai/users/Nonilex/statuses/116537574600650342https://board.circlewithadot.net/post/https://masto.ai/users/Nonilex/statuses/116537574600650342Fri, 08 May 2026 06:37:48 GMT<![CDATA[Reply to Exclusive: Oil-price bets ahead of #IranWar news totalled $7B, reporting shows on Fri, 08 May 2026 06:34:53 GMT]]>…However, a further analysis of data across exchanges & contracts showed traders executed similar bets at exactly the same dates & times for European & as well as longer-dated contracts for Brent & WTI, bringing the total to around $7 billion, based on Reuters calculations.

]]>https://board.circlewithadot.net/post/https://masto.ai/users/Nonilex/statuses/116537563090719891https://board.circlewithadot.net/post/https://masto.ai/users/Nonilex/statuses/116537563090719891Fri, 08 May 2026 06:34:53 GMT<![CDATA[Reply to Exclusive: Oil-price bets ahead of #IranWar news totalled $7B, reporting shows on Fri, 08 May 2026 06:32:16 GMT]]>Reuters & other media reported those trades on the most actively traded front-month contracts for the 2 global crude benchmarks, Brent & West ​Texas Intermediate . The value of those bets on those 4 days in March & April stood at around $2.6 billion, acc/to Reuters initial calculations.

The & did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

]]>https://board.circlewithadot.net/post/https://masto.ai/users/Nonilex/statuses/116537552849991092https://board.circlewithadot.net/post/https://masto.ai/users/Nonilex/statuses/116537552849991092Fri, 08 May 2026 06:32:16 GMT<![CDATA[Reply to Exclusive: Oil-price bets ahead of #IranWar news totalled $7B, reporting shows on Fri, 08 May 2026 06:29:39 GMT]]>The same pattern repeated on April 7, before announced a ceasefire with that triggered a fall of as much as 15% in benchmark ICE Brent . It happened again on April 17, when Iranian officials ​& Trump spoke about reopening the , & then again on April 21, when Trump extended the ceasefire.

]]>https://board.circlewithadot.net/post/https://masto.ai/users/Nonilex/statuses/116537542526379881https://board.circlewithadot.net/post/https://masto.ai/users/Nonilex/statuses/116537542526379881Fri, 08 May 2026 06:29:39 GMT<![CDATA[Reply to Exclusive: Oil-price bets ahead of #IranWar news totalled $7B, reporting shows on Fri, 08 May 2026 06:27:02 GMT]]>The well-timed trades have triggered calls from experts & lawmakers for regulators to investigate whether they ​were based on inside information or leaks.

Traders first spotted unusual trades on March 23. The trades were executed MINUTES before announced a delay to threatened attacks on Iranian power ⁠infrastructure, triggering an price fall.

]]>https://board.circlewithadot.net/post/https://masto.ai/users/Nonilex/statuses/116537532232713152https://board.circlewithadot.net/post/https://masto.ai/users/Nonilex/statuses/116537532232713152Fri, 08 May 2026 06:27:02 GMT<![CDATA[Reply to Exclusive: Oil-price bets ahead of #IranWar news totalled $7B, reporting shows on Fri, 08 May 2026 06:24:52 GMT]]>Reuters could not establish who placed the bets & whether they originated in the or elsewhere. They included short positions, or bets that prices would fall, for derivatives including , crude, & .

The bets took place on 2 major exchanges that host benchmark global & futures : the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) & Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME).

]]>https://board.circlewithadot.net/post/https://masto.ai/users/Nonilex/statuses/116537523735946181https://board.circlewithadot.net/post/https://masto.ai/users/Nonilex/statuses/116537523735946181Fri, 08 May 2026 06:24:52 GMT<![CDATA[Reply to Exclusive: Oil-price bets ahead of #IranWar news totalled $7B, reporting shows on Fri, 08 May 2026 06:19:40 GMT]]>The size exceeds previously reported bets amounting to $2.6 billion, which have already prompted the admin to warn “staff” against using ‌nonpublic information for financial benefit. The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission () is investigating, a person familiar with the matter told Reuters in April, although the CFTC has yet to officially confirm a probe is underway.

]]>https://board.circlewithadot.net/post/https://masto.ai/users/Nonilex/statuses/116537503289702690https://board.circlewithadot.net/post/https://masto.ai/users/Nonilex/statuses/116537503289702690Fri, 08 May 2026 06:19:40 GMT