<![CDATA[If you predict a catastrophe and you're wrong, nobody circles back to check.]]>If you predict a catastrophe and you're wrong, nobody circles back to check.

If you predict things will work out and they don't, that follows you around forever.

That asymmetry alone explains what I call Competitive Pessimism.

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Optimism is not a personality flaw

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Westenberg. (www.joanwestenberg.com)

]]>https://board.circlewithadot.net/topic/033c5aa8-abc6-428b-b94f-5301bdb0950d/if-you-predict-a-catastrophe-and-you-re-wrong-nobody-circles-back-to-check.RSS for NodeFri, 17 Apr 2026 14:59:29 GMTSun, 12 Apr 2026 01:32:48 GMT60<![CDATA[Reply to If you predict a catastrophe and you're wrong, nobody circles back to check. on Sun, 12 Apr 2026 05:27:14 GMT]]>@Daojoan if you predict things won’t work out and you offer a solution that would have avoided that outcome if you were listened to, and you’re right, people still don’t listen to you next time

]]>https://board.circlewithadot.net/post/https://mastodon.social/users/whereami/statuses/116390077046867179https://board.circlewithadot.net/post/https://mastodon.social/users/whereami/statuses/116390077046867179Sun, 12 Apr 2026 05:27:14 GMT<![CDATA[Reply to If you predict a catastrophe and you're wrong, nobody circles back to check. on Sun, 12 Apr 2026 04:20:16 GMT]]>@Daojoan Precisely! One famous victim of this asymmetry was Irving Fisher, who said in the autumn of 1929, "Stock prices have reached a permanently high plateau." Um, they hadn't. But Fisher made enormous contributions to his science, and looks like a forward-looking figure from our distance, dispute this heck of an Oopsie.

]]>https://board.circlewithadot.net/post/https://newsie.social/users/Christofurio/statuses/116389813730807142https://board.circlewithadot.net/post/https://newsie.social/users/Christofurio/statuses/116389813730807142Sun, 12 Apr 2026 04:20:16 GMT<![CDATA[Reply to If you predict a catastrophe and you're wrong, nobody circles back to check. on Sun, 12 Apr 2026 02:26:01 GMT]]>@Daojoan I try to be an optimistic pessimist. I find saying things will work out but maybe not is better for me.Life is a ride. Sometimes good Sometimes bad. People who get upset when someone tries to be supportive but things go wrong then they get mad at the supportive one, Im 60 going on 90, I have nothing for them.

]]>https://board.circlewithadot.net/post/https://mastodon.social/ap/users/116358860526162406/statuses/116389364433840131https://board.circlewithadot.net/post/https://mastodon.social/ap/users/116358860526162406/statuses/116389364433840131Sun, 12 Apr 2026 02:26:01 GMT<![CDATA[Reply to If you predict a catastrophe and you're wrong, nobody circles back to check. on Sun, 12 Apr 2026 02:16:38 GMT]]>@Daojoan Great writing, once again. Found your earlier piece on free will and wound up reading that as well.

Just a moment...

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(medium.com)

A pretty hard determinist myself, I may not fully agree with all your arguments, but wanted to thank you for the food for thought. Our future needs more empathy and more hope.

Curious to know if you happen to have any takes on "The Great Simplification" scenario by Nate Hagens.

]]>https://board.circlewithadot.net/post/https://piipitin.fi/users/vrtxd/statuses/116389327545066474https://board.circlewithadot.net/post/https://piipitin.fi/users/vrtxd/statuses/116389327545066474Sun, 12 Apr 2026 02:16:38 GMT<![CDATA[Reply to If you predict a catastrophe and you're wrong, nobody circles back to check. on Sun, 12 Apr 2026 01:59:47 GMT]]>@Daojoan Though the prediction of catastrophe can contribute to helping things work out - the aim of the Precautionary Principle.

And also just cherry picking, but the Simon-Ehrlich wager has followed eco-doomers around forever. And Zuckerberg et al seem to predict things like the metaverse will work out, waste resources and peoples lives, and no-one circles back on them.

]]>https://board.circlewithadot.net/post/https://social.coop/users/camerontw/statuses/116389261296259814https://board.circlewithadot.net/post/https://social.coop/users/camerontw/statuses/116389261296259814Sun, 12 Apr 2026 01:59:47 GMT<![CDATA[Reply to If you predict a catastrophe and you're wrong, nobody circles back to check. on Sun, 12 Apr 2026 01:36:13 GMT]]>@Daojoan I don't compete with myself

]]>https://board.circlewithadot.net/post/https://mastodon.social/users/Lizette603_23/statuses/116389168627895252https://board.circlewithadot.net/post/https://mastodon.social/users/Lizette603_23/statuses/116389168627895252Sun, 12 Apr 2026 01:36:13 GMT